Survey surprises

By: Alvin Capino - Manila Standard Today

It’s not surprising that Vice President Noli de Castro topped the Pulse Asia “Ulat ng Bayan March 2008” survey. De Castro, after all, has retained the popularity he enjoyed when he was the country’s top journalist. He continued to demonstrate his common touch as senator and now as vice president, housing czar and champion of the country’s Filipino overseas workers.

What is startling in the results of the Pulse Asia survey conducted from Feb. 21 to March 8 is that high-profile presidential wannabes Senate President Manny Villar and Senator Mar Roxas are in bottom of the second pack of hopefuls in the survey, placing sixth and fourth respectively.

One would think that Villar with his multi-million radio and TV commercials would place in the top three. The same thing goes with Roxas and his Tide and his “Oras Na, Roxas Na” campaign.

Legarda of course has her own TV and radio “graduation” campaign and De Castro has his “Pag-Ibig” radio ads. But the budget for De Castro’s and Legarda’s ad campaigns is just a fraction of what Villar and Roxas are spending. And yet it’s Noli and Loren in the top two slots.

The surprise among those who topped the Pulse Asia survey is Senator Francis Escudero who was third in the survey when the only ad he has is the slimming shop billboards.

Senator Ping Lacson placed fifth, one rung higher than Villar, when the only ad he has running is the print ad for a facial care center.

We interviewed Pulse Asia executive director Dr. Ana Marie Tabunda in our Karambola sa dwIZ about the survey and she clarified that they were surprised to learn that one of their subscribers released the results of their survey to some media outlets. She said that when they found out that the results have been sent out to selected media, they decided to release it to everybody.

It’s not difficult to guess who “unofficially” released the survey results— and for sure, it’s not the group of Villar or Roxas.

Tabunda said that the proper way to look at the survey results is to group the 16 names included in the survey into three. The first group is composed of De Castro (21.5 percent) and Legarda (17.5 percent) who she said are statistically neck-in-neck.

She explained that De Castro was no. 1 numerically in the survey results but the four-point difference between him and Legarda was not very significant statistically. She further explained that for the difference to be deemed significant, the results should be more than double that of the margin of error. In this particular survey the margin of error is +/-3 and therefore a significant result would be a difference of 7 or more percentage points.

The second group, according to Tabunda, is composed of Escudero (13 percent), Roxas (10.5 percent), Lacson (9.9 percent) and Villar (9.3 percent). Statistically speaking, the four are in a dead heat.

The third group are the rest of the 16 personalities included in the survey namely Senator Jinggoy Estrada (3.3 percent), Senator Antonio Trillanes (3 percent), MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando (1.4 percent), Makati Mayor Jojo Binay (1.2 percent), Senator Richard Gordon (0.7 percent), Armed Forces Chief Hermogenes Esperon Jr. (0.4 percent), Quezon City Mayor Sonny Belmonte (0.3 percent), Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro (0.3 percent), Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita (0.1 percent) and Gawad Kalinga executive director Antonio Meloto (0.1 percent).

Tabunda said that there is another Pulse Asia survey on presidential hopefuls results that they still had in embargo. She hinted that the result of this survey was a little different from the survey with 16 names.

She said that the embargoed survey had a shorter list of choices for the respondents. I would guess that instead of 16 the short list survey would probably include the perceived main contenders for the 2010 presidential elections namely De Castro, Legarda, Escudero, Roxas, Lacson and Villar.

Indeed, that would be a more realistic picture of voters’ preference for president. It’s possible that the six would be the ones who would figure out in the 2010 multi-candidate elections. It would be interesting to see how the match-up is between the six.

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Except for Escudero, all the others have at one time or another given broad hints or outright confirmation of their intentions to run for president in 2010.

If you ask Escudero if he is considering running for president or vice president in 2010 his stock answer is that the elections is still too far off and that it’s too early to decide on anything.

A source close to him revealed that most of the other presidential wannabes have approached Escudero to get his commitment to be their running mate in 2010. The invitation includes the offer that they will spend for all of Escudero’s requirements for his vice presidential bid.

The senator from Bicol has politely turned down all the offers, according to the source. He tells them that he realizes that those offers are being made because he is doing well in the surveys. He then asks what if his survey ratings go down six months before the 2010 elections. Would they still get him?

The source says Escudero tells those who are inviting him to run as their vice president that they should talk when the election is already near and this way he would be sparing them of the embarrassment of trying to take back their offer in case he does not figure well in the surveys come 2010.

However, it seems unlikely that Escudero’s survey results would go down drastically. In fact, what’s more likely is that it would go up given the way he has been conducting himself as senator.

In fact, the result for Escudero of the “Ulat ng Bayan March 2008” Pulse Asia survey is something that other contenders envy. He was the leading presidential candidate of choice in the National Capital Region with 23.7 percent showing a significant lead over de Castro (15.7 percent) and Legarda (14.7 percent).

He also had significant lead in economic class ABC with 22.2 percent followed by Legarda (14.2 percent) and de Castro (14.1 percent).

Escudero, among them, enjoys the luxury of time. He will only be 41 in 2010. He can run for president. He can run for vice president. Or he can choose not to run at all and just continue serving as senator.

Sadly for the others, their options are more limited and waiting for the next presidential election in 2016 might not be an option at all.