PAGASA lowered public storm warning signal, BUT this blogger believes that Olongapenos SHOULD brace for anticipated FLOODING

Be ready for flooding, may not be as bad as Ondoy but could be somewhere near it.

Olongapo City 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 278mm), heaviest during Fri night, Wind will be generally light.

250mm and above precipitation means flooding in our city.

While PAGASA Enhanced Satellite Image and Track of Storm Juaning indicate lesser disturbance prompting them to lower storm warning signals. This observer believe that such public announcement can be detrimental to our constituency in Olongapo City because people may lower their guards thinking that the worst is over.....

PAGASA's focus is on the strenght and movement of the storm. This writer's focus is on anticipating the volume of water that will pour in Olongapo City, a flood prone locality.

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission predicts that we will be flooded.

International Weather forecasts indicate that we will be flooded tomorrow afternoon til night.... I have been reading their forecast for years.... and this is one of the very few instances when a 97mm precipitation forecast was raised.

Tide charts are provided below for added reference.

PREDICTED HOURLY HEIGHT OF TIDE
Subic Bay, Zambales
Philippine Date: Thursday, July 28, 2011

HOUR	HEIGHT	HOUR	HEIGHT
2400	0.42	1200	0.45
0100	0.51	1300	0.25
0200	0.61	1400	0.09
0300	0.73	1500	-0.02
0400	0.86	1600	-0.06
0500	0.98	1700	-0.05
0600	1.07	1800	0
0700	1.11	1900	0.07
0800	1.08	2000	0.14
0900	1	2100	0.21
1000	0.85	2200	0.26
1100	0.66	2300	0.32

Time

Height

Time

Height

Thu	Tide Set One	07:34 AM	1.23 m	04:34 PM	0.04 m
	Tide Set Two
Fri	Tide Set One	08:22 AM	1.31 m	05:10 PM	-0.01 m
	Tide Set Two
Sat	Tide Set One	09:08 AM	1.36 m	05:43 PM	-0.03 m

Disaster Risk Reduction Management Personnel and Rescue operatives should be placed on heightened alert.

Constituents MUST be fairly warned.

Better be safe than sorry...

PAGASA raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2

Tropical Storm "JUANING" has slightly intensified as it moves toward Quezon area and increases its threat to Southern and Central Luzon.

Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs

International weather forecasters predict heavy rains Wednesday.

Tide is high from two to nine in the morning, peaking at around 6am with 1.15 meter

Low lying flood prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures.

Classes suspended for elementary and high school level.

Olongapo City 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 185mm), heaviest during Wed afternoon, Warm (max 28°C on Thu morning, min 26°C on Tue night), Wind will be generally light

High Tide		Low Tide
		Time	Height	Time	Height
Wed	Tide Set One	06:44 AM	1.15 m	03:55 PM	0.11 m
	Tide Set Two
Thu	Tide Set One	07:34 AM	1.23 m	04:34 PM	0.04 m
	Tide Set Two
Fri	Tide Set One	08:22 AM	1.31 m	05:10 PM	-0.01 m

Weather Forecast for Olongapo-Subic area

Expect rain showers the whole week, get those rain gears ready!!

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Olongapo/forecasts/latest

Olongapo Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 234mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon

From Mayor James Bong Gordon Jr.
June 24, 2011 Olongapo City ALL LEVELS of Schools NO CLASSES

Olongapo Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 234mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon

High Tides on Friday 3:25pm and Saturday 5:34am

Fri	Tide Set One	05:23 AM	0.69 m	10:36 AM	0.55 m
	Tide Set Two	03:25 PM	0.65 m	10:19 PM	0.34 m
Sat	Tide Set One	05:45 AM	0.80 m	12:49 PM	0.45 m
	Tide Set Two	05:10 PM	0.52 m	10:27 PM	0.39 m
Sun	Tide Set One	06:13 AM	0.90 m	02:23 PM	0.33 m
	Tide Set Two	07:54 PM	0.44 m

Flood Alert Raised for Olongapo-Subic areas

Flood Alert: Rainfall today up to tomorrow evening is 318mm, much higher than 266mm and 142mm when it flooded Olongapo City for two days just recently. Please be prepared. God bless everyone!

Olongapo 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 318mm), heaviest during Thu afternoon, (max 28°C on Wed morning, min 26°C on Wed night),

High tides:

Wednesday at 1:42pm - .96 m

Thursday at 2:26pm - .81 m

Forecast: Heavy rain (total 142mm), heaviest during Wednesday night

Current report from weather-forecast.com said that there is going to be heavy rain (total 142mm), heaviest during Wednesday night.... but forecast provided by NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission indicate a more heavier precipitation at 250mm

By experience, precipitation that is more than 250mm is enough to trigger flooding in low-lying areas of Olongapo City. In the other day's forecast both sources predicted more than 250mm... and true enough... the city was flooded yesterday.

Present actual condition: heavy rains (almost the same as yesterday when it flooded) but this blogger's gut feel.... may flood the lowest points in the city but not enough to bring flood at yesterday's level.... but then again... with all bases loaded (high levels at our rivers)... its still best to be ready.

UPDATE as of 7pm: due to heavy rain coupled by high tide (1.5m) a few minutes past six this evening, flood were again experienced at various barangays of Olongapo starting 6:30pm. It was however not as deep as yesterdays flood.

Heavy rain expected in Olongapo-Subic area, heaviest during Sunday evening until Monday morning

Olongapo residents in flood-prone areas should prepare for possible flooding. Present conditions (including the heavy downpour last night) and forecasts from reputable sources indicate very high probability of flooding.

Olongapo 1 – 3 Day Weather Forecast Summary: Heavy rain (total 266mm), heaviest during Sunday evening until Monday morning
http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Olongapo/forecasts/latest

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/heavy_rain_G5_3.html

Heavy rain in Olongapo-Subic (total 107mm), heaviest during Thurs night

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Olongapo/map
NASA TRMM Image: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

Image from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Kochi University, Satellite Weather map

Rain and strong winds

A low-pressure area (LPA) west of Iba town in Zambales province has developed into a tropical depression, weather forecasters said Friday.

The tropical depression, “Florita,” is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rain and strong winds over the western sections of Luzon and the Visayas region, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

PAGASA did not raise public storm warning signals over Luzon and the Visayas.

The state weather bureau’s website said that as of 4 p.m. Friday, “Florita” was located 330 kilometers west of Dagupan City and is expected to be 510 km west of Laoag City by Saturday afternoon.

The tropical depression is currently packing maximum winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center and is expected to move northwest at 11kph.

PAGASA also spotted another low pressure area 770 km northeast of Basco, Batanes, today.

“The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today,” PAGASA said.

Sat 28 morn- ing	Sat 28 after- noon	Sat 28 night	Sun 29 morn- ing	Sun 29 after- noon	Sun 29 night	Mon 30 morn- ing	Mon 30 after- noon	Mon 30 night
Metric
Imperial
Wind (km/h)
Summary	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs
Rain (mm)	11	17	47	16	11	8	9	7	9

Heavy rain (total 135mm), heaviest during Saturday night, Warm

Precipatation forecast provided by

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/SubicBay/forecasts/latest

Present observation: continous rain this morning ranging from light to heavy