PAGASA upgrades Subic equipment in time for La Niña

By MADEL R. SABATER, Manila Bulletin

Bracing for disasters caused by heavy rainfall brought by "La Nina", the state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has set a "Grand Plan" which includes the acquisition and installation of state-of-the-art weather forecasting equipment in key areas of the country.

La Niña is a weather phenomenon characterized by too much rainfall. It is indicated by cooler than average sea surface temperatures and the persistently stronger than average low-level winds, coupled with above average values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

In an interview with the Manila Bulletin, newly-appointed Undersecretary for Research and Development (R & D) of the Department of Science and Technology (DoST) and PAGASA officer-in-charge Dr. Graciano Yumul, Jr. said said two new doppler radars will be installed in Subic Bay, Olongapo City and Tagaytay City within this year.

This, he said, is in line with PAGASA's "Grand Plan" dubbed "10 by 2010," which seeks to have 10 doppler radars installed in various parts of the country by year 2010.

Yumul added that the weather bureau is planning to acquire three more doppler radars to be installed in Virac, Catanduanes; Guiuan, Eastern Samar; and Aparri, Cagayan Valley, which are all currently providing public weather forecast using the surveillance band (S-band) radar capability.

He said that PAGASA is currently "in the middle of a negotiation with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)" for the acquisition of the three new doppler radars amounting "close to a billion pesos."

In addition, the three S-band radars would be transferred to Davao, Cagayan de Oro and in Busuanga, Palawan for a much improved weather forecasting capability in southern Philippines.

Meanwhile, the new DoST undersecretary said that the United States and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) gave P17 million for the "repair and rehabilitation" of the Laoag upper air observation center in Ilocos Norte this year while P18 million is reserved for the repair of the PAGASA upper - air observation center in Legaspi City.
"So there will be two (upper-air observation centers) working this year," he said.

According to Engr. Catalino "Nonoy" Davis, PAGASA Field Operations chief, PAGASA has a total of six upper-air observation centers stationed in Puerto Princesa City, Palawan; Legaspi City, Albay; Cebu; Tanay, Rizal; Quezon City and Laoag City.

Plans to upgrade the Baler and Baguio Radar and Synoptic Stations from S-band to doppler radar capability are also being undertaken, Yumul said, adding that the installation of a World Area Forecasting System (WAFS) in Cebu is also being pursued by PAGASA.

"So pag nasira and WAFS in NAIA (Ninoy Aquino International Airport) at ang S-band radar in Guiuan, Eastern Samar, it will act as a second line of defense," Yumul said.

DoST Secretary Estrella Alabastro earlier said that aside from its other functions, doppler radars have the capability to estimate rainfall so nearby towns and cities will be given sufficient warning against floods.

With its 200-km. range, Yumul added the doppler radars would further enhance the detection of strong winds as well as the velocity and amount of rainfall. Last year, the weather bureau has rehabilitated and upgraded the five S-band radars in Aparri; Virac, Catanduanes; Guiuan; Baler, Aurora and Baguio City.

PAGASA earlier revealed that the above normal amount of rainfall experienced in the country's "Niño" regions is an indication of a possible development of a "weak La Niña."
Yumul said the possible effects of La Niña include too much rain and more, stronger typhoons.

PAGASA Climatology and Agrometeorology chief Dr. Flaviana Hilario had said that if current weather conditions in the country would persist for the next two months, the weather bureau will officially announce the start of a La Niña phenomenon in the country.

The last La Niña phenomenon to hit the country, she said, was from July 1998 up to 2000, adding that the usual duration of the said phenomenon can be experienced from six months to two years.

The meaning of storm signals

In the face of successive tropical cyclones or typhoons that brought massive damages to the country and to Olongapo City as well, Mayor James “Bong” Gordon, Jr. has tasked concerned departments to re-inform Olongapeños about the meanings of storm signals so that appropriate disaster preparedness can be done to prevent accidents.

“The Philippines has the highest number of tropical typhoons in the world with an average of 20 typhoons entering the country every year, so we must always prepare for the worst situations,” said Mayor James “Bong” Gordon, Jr.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or PAG-ASA, Public Storm Signal No. 1 is put into effect when a maximum wind speed of not more than 60 kph is expected to affect a certain place in at lest 36 hours. In this situation, impact of winds may cause twigs and branches of small trees to be broken, some banana plants may be tiled or downed and some houses of very light materials like nipa and cogon may be partially unroofed. Classes in pre-school level in all public and private schools in affected communities will automatically be suspended.

On the other hand, Public Storm Signal No. 2 is announced when the maximum wind speed is greater than 60kph but not more than 100 kph is expected to affect a certain place in at least 24 hours. In this situation some coconut trees may be tilted or broken, few big trees may be uprooted, large number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed, some old galvanized iron roofing may be peeled off and in general, the winds may bring light to moderate damages to the communities affected. With storm signal no. 2, classes in pre-school, elementary and high school levels in all public and private schools in affected areas are automatically suspended .

Public Storm Signal No. 3 is announced when a maximum wind speed of more than 100 kph up to 185 kph is expected to affect a certain place in at least 12 to 18 hours. In this situation, nipa houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damages to structures of light to medium construction. There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services and in general, moderate to heavy damage may be expected, practically in agricultural and industrial sectors. With public storm signal no. 3, people are advised not to travel especially by sea or air transportation and people should also seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and stay-away from seacoasts or river banks. Classes in all levels are automatically suspended in affected communities.

Public Storm Signal no. 4 is declared when very strong winds of more than 185 kph is expected to affect a certain area in at least 12 hours. In this situation, many large trees may be uprooted and most residential and buildings of mixed construction may be severely damaged, electrical power disruption and communication services will be disrupted and in general, massive damages may be expected to communities affected.

The Olongapo City Government has renewed its efforts in raising public awareness on the possible adverse effects of typhoons by explaining the meaning of storm warning signals. (Photo/ Caption Courtesy of PAO)

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PAGASA in a storm of controversy

Peoples Journal

A storm threatens to wallop the Philippines but a huge computer that dominates the forecasting room of the nation’s weather service is in screensaver mode showing a cartoon pattern of unexploded bombs.

While tropical storm Parma (‘‘Pepeng’’) ominously hovers near Luzon, the computer has no data to receive as the main weather radar on a hilltop in Baguio is out of action — again.

This scenario played out Tuesday when AFP visited the forecasters in Manila to examine why they failed to predict the ferocity of tropical storm Ketsana which killed nearly 300 people in and around the capital on September 26.

“Our old radar has limitations,” said Fredolina Baldonado, a meteorologist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

“It has a blind spot to the south and that includes Metropolitan Manila.”

This, she said, explained why the forecasters were unable to warn the residents of Manila before 42 centimeters (17 inches) — the heaviest deluge in more than four decades — was dumped on the nation’s capital.

Asked why the radar was not working on Tuesday as Filipinos looked to PAGASA for guidance on tropical storm Parma, senior weather forecaster Rene Paciente gave a matter-of-fact explanation about the radar breakdown in Baguio.

A landslide had disturbed the alignment of its antenna, and as a result could not transmit data to the forecaster’s headquarters, Paciente said.

The weather service has a limited network of radar stations to track an average of 19 typhoons that approach the country each year, with nine or 10 of those storms making landfall to claim a combined tally of hundreds of lives.

While weather forecasters around the world are often subject to derision for getting their predictions wrong, PAGASA is a particularly vulnerable target with critics using the events of recent weeks to strengthen their arguments.

However, PAGASA operations chief Nathaniel Cruz insisted he was in charge of a “24/7” system, manned at any one time by up to four forecasters.

They were supported by as many as three cartographers who plotted the weather systems on graphs, up to two weather satellite experts and two meteorological telecommunications men, he said.

Cruz also rejected one common assertion that PAGASA was not getting the government funding needed to perform properly.

“It is incorrect to say PAGASA has been left begging for funds,” Cruz said, adding the government had given the weather service P4 billion for equipment upgrades over the past five years.

Cruz urged people to focus on a plan to buy five modern Doppler radars worth $100,000 each that would dramatically improve PAGASA’S forecasting abilities.

The radars would give the country warnings six hours ahead of typhoons, and would be able to predict the intensity of rain expected to fall within an area as small as two square kilometers.

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This writer understands the perennial "funding problem" of most government agencies, like PAGASA not being able to acquire expensive equipment to make their capability at par with international forecasters. But my question is.... are they not allowed to use data from reliable international forecasters like NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM), a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA?

They were able to predict the flooding... if only that forecast was widely disseminated, I believe there would have been less casualty and hearth aches could have been prevented.

This blogger were able to warn our constituents of the impending flooding by simply using data readily available on-line... please see

http://subicbaynews.blogspot.com/search/label/weather

Modernizing Weather Forecasting

SENATOR Richard Gordon has sought the modernization of the country's weather forecasting system to minimize damages by natural disasters.

In filling Senate Bill (SB) 2080, Gordon proposed the acquisition by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) of the state-of-the-art-of-war weather and geophysical equipment and facilities within the next six years.

It is imperative, he said, for the Philippines to have a modern weather forecasting and warning system because of the numerous disasters that hit the country every year.

"These natural disasters such as floods, typhoons, and landslides, and earthquakes place in great danger the safety and lives of our citizens and cause considerable damage to property," Gordon said.

Under the bill, Pagasa shall adopt a four-pronged modernization program such as establishment of regional weather service centers in strategic areas across the country to broaden Pagasa's bases for delivery of services to each region; modernization of physical resources and operational techniques through the acquisition of state-of-the-art equipment and facilities, with emphasis on weather and flood monitoring and warning system and agro-meteorological observation system to strengthen services for agriculture; intensification of human resources development to keep pace with rapid international scientific and technological advances; and upgrade of research and development capability through amore rationalized and integrated approach, with focus on improvement of operations, and specialized services development for cost recovery.

Gordon said funding for the project will come from the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (Pagcor). The bill also grants Pagasa the authority to enter into loan agreements with, or accept grants and donations, from foreign and local financial institutions.

The proposed measure also gives Pagasa elbowroom to adopt a sustainable cost recovery program like getting subscriptions for its specialized weather information and other scientific data.

The bill also proposes the creation of a modernization oversight committee to monitor implementation of the project. The secretary of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) will chair the committee, with members coming from the Senate and the House of Representatives. (CPB/Sunnex)

6 Olongapo villages submerged in floods

Six villages in Olongapo City in Zambales province were submerged in floodwaters due to heavy rains on Monday, a local official said Tuesday.

Olongapo City Mayor Bong Gordon said some houses were submerged in neck-deep floods, forcing residents to stay on their home's roofs.

Gordon said rescue operations have been launched by teams from the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority for the trapped villagers. He said at least 70,000 residents were affected by the floods.

The mayor said he has ordered the suspension of classes in all levels in the city. He added that some affected residents have been brought to the Olongapo City National High School, which has been turned into an evacuation center.

Weather bureau PAGASA said provinces in Luzon and Visayas will continue to experience monsoon rains. It warned residents against possible flashfloods and landslides.

It also warned small sea crafts against rough seas in Luzon and Visayas due to the southwest monsoon. With a report from Doland Castro, ABS-CBN News

= = =

This writer in three earlier articles warned readers of such an event, it was made because all indicators point to such an inevitable occurence.

WEATHER UPDATE

http://subicbaynews.blogspot.com/2009/09/weather-update.html

Flood warning for Olongapo residents

http://subicbaynews.blogspot.com/2009/09/flood-warning-for-olongapo-residents.html

Expect more rains, flooding

http://subicbaynews.blogspot.com/2009/09/expect-more-rains-flooding.html

This writer's prediction is not solely based on PAGASA forecast since it is too general for our specific purpose. Additional actual on-site observation and using experience (living in this place for 48 years), utilization of precipitation forecasts coupled with tide prediction and basic common sense. Since flooding and landslides are our outmost concern, it is more practical to use a precipitation from www.weather-forecast.com map not only satellite image from Pagasa as compared below.

PAGASA IMAGE

As can be observed, the precipitation map from www.weather-forecast.com below is much easier to understand

Here's my note on what transpired:

4:30am electrical power was shut down due to fast rising floodwater

4:50am a house in Jolo, Tabacuan, Sta. Rita was washed-away by strong water current, purok leader requesting for rescue.

5:21am Mrs. Tolentino of Purok Uno Sta Rita requesting for emergency evacuation, she's on labor and about to give birth

5:30am water level decreased by a foot, but again... heavy rains started to pour. A report that in Banicain, water is waist deep

6:00am Report of newly placed garbage bins swept away by rushing floods

The Mayor announced NO CLASSES in all levels

6:30am Mrs. Diwa of Mayumi Sta Rita requesting to be rescued, mother suffering high blood pressure due to fear of the situation

Another landslide reported in Purok Uno, Libas, New Cabalan, houses affected, one covered

7:15am A report of a house in Sta Rita village located near a river about to be swept away, riprap was totally gone and half of the house standing on air

For the whole day, Mayor Gordon went around the city to assess the situation and provide assistance to his constituents. An estimated 70,000 people were affected.

Evacuees were transfered to Olongapo City National High School

Water level subsided.

Tuesday 4:15pm water level started rising again due to another heavy downpour

4:45pm water level increased by another 8 inches and counting..

Tuesday night 59 mm previously 49mm with high tide at 12:37pm @ .79m (from earlier report)

Its nice to note though that the 59mm forecast for this night was reduced to 40mm... but remember... "all bases loaded" - thus water will rise! So put ourselves in HIGHEST ALERT!

Here's the PAGASA release for reference

PAGASA Weather forecast

Issued At: 5:00 a.m., 08 September 2009

(click here to download 5 a.m. Tuesday, 08-Sep-2009 16:30:14 PHT forecast-Adobe PDF format)

Synopsis : Southwest monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas.

Tropical Cyclone Update

As of today, Tuesday, 08-Sep-2009 16:30:14 PHT no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Gale Warning

Issued at: 5:00 a.m., Today, 08 September 2009

The surge of the Southwest Monsoon is expected to affect the seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

More...

Low Pressure Area Advisory

Issued at: 11:00 a.m., 08 September 2009

A Low Pressure Area is estimated at 220 kms West of Dagupan City (16.0°N 118.0°E).

GENERAL FLOOD ADVISORY

For REGION 3 (Central Luzon)

http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ffb/flood_bul.htm

GENERAL FLOOD ADVISORY # 4

For REGION 3 (ZAMBALES and BATAAN PROVINCE)

Issued at 9:00 AM, 07 September 2009

(Valid until the next issuance at 9:00 AM tomorrow)

WEATHER SYNOPSIS:

SOUTHWEST MONSOON AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LUZON AND VISAYAS.

PAST 24-HRS RAINFALL (MM) ENDING AT 8:00 AM TODAY:

IBA = 129.4 mm

CUBI PT. = 122.0 mm

FORECAST RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

WATERCOURSES LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED:

RIVERS AND STREAMS IN ZAMBALES PARTICULARLY NAYOM RIVER , STA CRUZ RIVER, UACON RIVER, LAWIS RIVER, SALAZA RIVER, BAGSIT RIVER, BUCAO RIVER, MALOMA RIVER, SANTO TOMAS RIVER, PAMATAWAN RIVER AND STA. RITA RIVER IN OLONGAPO.

RIVERS AND STREAM IN BATAAN PARTICULARLY THE BALANGA AND MORONG RIVERS.

PUBLIC WARNING:

PEOPLE LIVING NEAR THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIVERS AND THE LOCAL COORDINATING COUNCILS CONCERNED ARE STILL ADVISE TO BE ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE FLASHFLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.

Prepared by:

ALP/SRE/DDF/SPS

Duty Hydrologists

Main Operation Center-Flood Forecasting and Warning Section (MOC-FFWS)

Heavy Rain forecast for Subic Bay

Three international weather forecasting bureaus issued heavy rains forecast for Subic Bay area starting Sunday night up to Monday morning. There is no harm in being prepared, so lets get ourselves ready.

Subic Bay, Philippines Weather Forecast

Issued: 13 pm Sat 17 Jul local time

Subic Bay 1 – 3 Day Weather Summary: Heavy rain (total 227mm), heaviest during Sun night, Warm (max 29°C on Sat afternoon, min 25°C on Sun night),

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/SubicBay/forecasts/latest

Subic Bay Weather Station

http://www.weatherforyou.com/clickcast/international/ph/subic+bay+weather+station.html

Sunday Night

Very Heavy Rain

Low: 25°C / 77°F.

Winds: S 24 kph (15 mph)

Precipitation: 121.87mm (4.80 in)*

Monday

Very Heavy Showers

High: 27°C / 80°F.

Winds: S 16-24 kph (10-15 mph)

Precipitation: 27.65mm (1.09 in)*

Expect more rains, flooding

Certain areas of Olongapo City were flooded early Sunday morning due to rains brought by weather disturbance "Labuyo".

And according to http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/SubicBay/forecasts/latest the rains will be heaviest on Monday and Tuesday with 338 precipitation.

As of this writing, flooding is reported in barangays East and West Bajac Bajac, Acacia St in Gordon Heighst, various areas in Sta Rita and Mactan in Old Cabalan. Families are already evacuated to safer areas and electricity in flooded areas such as davidson in West Bajac Bajac were requested to be shutdown to prevent electricution since the water have reached level of electrical outlets.

The Traffic Management Board have requests of towing services to clear roads of stalled vehicles and the City Disaster and Coordinating Council on red alert.

Below is an online report from RIO ROSE RIBAYA - Manila Bulletin

Monsoon rains will continue to prevail over Central and Southern Luzon as well as Visayas even as tropical storm "Labuyo" moves away from the country on its way to Japan, the weather bureau said on Saturday.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said it spotted the eye of the storm in the Philippine Sea at 990 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes as of 10 a.m. on Saturday.

In its latest tropical cyclone update, PAGASA noted that "Labuyo" further intensified with maximum winds of 85 kph near its center and gustiness of up to 100 kph.

But the weather bureau did not raise public warning storm signals in any part of the country after the storm continued its northeast movement towards Japan.

PAGASA said the weather disturbance will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring occasional rains to Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and Bicol as well as Western, Central and Eastern Visayas.

PAGASA said that monsoon rains will become widespread in the western parts of the country such as Zambales, Tarlac, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, and Antique.

At the same time, PAGASA advised fishing vessels and small seacraft not to venture out into the sea as strong winds associated with the southwest monsoon and enhanced by the tropical storm "Labuyo" will make the sea rough.

The weather bureau said Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with rough to very rough sea conditions with waves as big as 5.5 meters high.

PAGASA said it expects storm "Labuyo" to be at 1,160 kms east northeast of Basco, Batanes by Sunday morning and finally out of the country on Monday at about 1,370 kms northeast of Basco, Batanes.

5 dead as Dodong exits RP

By Helen Flores - PhilStar

Five people were killed yesterday in storm-related incidents as tropical storm “Dodong” headed out to Taiwan and another low-pressure area formed east of Luzon.

An eight-year-old boy and two men were electrocuted in Manila and San Miguel town in Bulacan when they waded in floodwaters, while two boys, aged eight and 11, were buried in mudslides in Angeles City and Olongapo.

At Malacañang, Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita
announced last night the suspension of classes today in the elementary and high school levels in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet, Zambales, Pangasinan, and Bataan.

Classes in all levels will resume in areas not included in the latest announcement, although disaster officials said individual schools and local officials may suspend classes depending on the situation in their areas.

Chief weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the low-pressure area would be named “Egay” if it develops into a full blown tropical storm.

Egay would be the third weather disturbance to hit the country in a week as Dodong (international code name Wutip) maintained its strength yesterday as it moved closer to eastern Taiwan.

The first tropical storm Chedeng (international codename Pabuk) entered the country early this week. Both storms induced the southwest monsoon rains that flooded most parts of Metro Manila and several provinces, leaving 11 people dead and forcing the suspension of classes in two days of continuous rain since Monday.

The rains from Chedeng and Dodong ended a three-month spell that dried up dams and farms and threatened water rationing in Metro Manila.

But both storms also induced monsoon rains that left a trail of destruction in most parts of the country.

Both Chedeng and Dodong spawned inside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), the weather forecasters noted.

Cruz said weather disturbances that spawn inside the PAR are rather unusual, since low-pressure areas normally develop over the Pacific Ocean before entering the country after two to three days.

“This is something new, hindi ito normal na nangyayari,” Cruz said.

Cruz said the weather phenomenon poses a “dilemma” for disaster managers since they will have a “short lead time” for warnings.

“These storms are much closer to the country before disaster managers can make the necessary precautions,” Cruz said.

As of 10 a.m. yesterday, Dodong was located 260 kilometers north of Basco, Batanes, packing winds of 75 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 90 kph. It was moving northwest at 19 kph.

Dodong was forecast to be 540 kms northwest of Basco or 210 kms west of Taipei, Taiwan this morning, and 870 kms northwest of Basco or 640 kms west of Taiwan tomorrow morning.

Public storm signal no. 1 is still hoisted over Batanes and the Babuyan Islands.

Chedeng had induced monsoon rains in southern Mindanao, causing a landslide that buried seven houses and killed at least 10 people in Maco, Compostela Valley.

The rains also triggered a landslide in Antipolo City, Rizal as rescue workers pulled five siblings from the rubble of their house after a concrete wall collapsed during the downpour Wednesday.

In Baguio City, a nine-year-old boy was killed in a landslide that buried his family’s home due to incessant rains.



Five killed

Eight-year-old Raymart Cabigting of Simoun St., Sampaloc district was electrocuted after touching a grounded lamp post while wading in knee-deep flood waters in Dimasalang Street, while three others were taken to hospitals for injuries from electric shocks while wading the flooded streets of Dapitan and Concepcion, disaster relief officials said.

The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) also reported that eight-year-old Archie Elan perished after he was buried by a mudslide along the Abacan river in Barangay Amsic in Angeles City.

Bulacan regional disaster officer Jesus Ragunan reported two people died from electric shock while wading in floodwaters in San Miguel town.

Ragunan identified the fatalities as Protacio Belones of Barangay Kamias and Allan Santos of Barangay Sakdalan.

In Olongapo City, 11-year-old Daren Battaler perished in a mudslide in Barangay Cabalan.

Officials said Battaler was trying to retrieve a fighting cock when he fell into a nearby creek and got buried in mud softened by the incessant rains.

Officials also reported a still unidentified man was injured in a tornado that hit a farming village in San Antonio, Zambales.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) said a total of 1,618 families have been displaced by the monsoon rains brought about by Dodong.

Most of the families affected by the floods and landslides were relocated in 19 temporary shelters in Metro Manila and Central Luzon, the areas hardest hit by floods.

A total of 53,120 people from 130 barangays in these regions have been displaced, the NDCC said.

Disaster officials also reported 27 houses were damaged by a tornado that hit Palauig and San Antonio in Zambales.

In Barangay San Miguel in San Antonio, Alberto Radoc was injured after getting hit by debris during the tornado.



Inundated

The monsoon rains inundated several towns in Central Luzon, prompting local officials to declare a state of calamity.

Bulacan Gov. Joselito Mendoza placed the entire province under a state of calamity yesterday.

Mendoza cited the recent emergency cases in the province, which included the hog cholera outbreak, last Tuesday’s tornado in Baliuag town and the floods spawned by the monsoon rains brought about by the two storms, which all occurred within the week.

In Zambales, Gov. Amor Deloso said they were able to rescue yesterday 10 fishermen marooned on a fishing vessel off Iba town.

Zambales disaster officials said the main road leading to San Narciso remains flooded.

Five villages in San Felipe are also under water, as are five in Palauig, and two in Masinloc in Zambales, officials reported.

In Bataan, provincial disaster coordinating council chief Tess Senora said the main road leading to Dinalupihan town remained under water and not passable by light vehicles.

Senora said rising floodwaters prompted the provincial government to evacuate 200 families in Barangay Old San Juan, 30 from Barangay Loakan, and 19 from Sta. Isabel in Dinalupihan.

Pampanga provincial social officer Lucia Gutierrez said strong flood currents frustrated rescue efforts to retrieve 165 families in Barangay Tinajero and another 40 families in Barangay Cabetican.

Gutierrez said Pampanga Gov. Eddie Panlilio sought help from the regional police to dispatch helicopters to rescue villagers in Apalit isolated by the floods.

She said the flooding in the towns of Bacolor, San Fernando and Lubao was aggravated by the collapse of dikes along the Pampanga river.

In Nueva Ecija, some 200 families were also evacuated from Barangays Sta. Arcadia, Imelda, San Juan Acpa and Amihan in Cabanatuan City.

Officials also reported five villages in Gapan remained four feet underwater.

Ten families living along the Abacan river in Angeles City, Pampanga were also moved to evacuation centers as strong currents started to erode the banks. -With Ding Cervantes, Dino Balabo, Ric Sapnu, Non Alquitran, James Mananghaya, Raffy Viray, Nestor Etolle, Cesar Ramirez, AP, Reuters

GAPO ACQUIRES AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION

The Olongapo City government recently acquired a Davis Vantage Pro2, an Automated Weather Station (AWS),  in line with Mayor Bong Gordon’s thrust to upgrade the city’s disaster risk reduction and management capability.

“The AWS and the forecasts from PAG-ASA will both be information sources that will help us reach speedy decisions regarding risk reduction,” said Mayor Gordon.

Installed at the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (CDRRMO), the AWS  can record the basic weather parameters of the  locality.

Specifically, it can record the following: wind direction, wind force, prevailing temperature, 24-hour minimum/maximum temperature, barometric pressure, rainfall height, relative humidity, solar radiation and ultraviolet radiation (UV).

The AWS can also forecast the weather conditions of an area for the next hours.

The AWS is being maintained and monitored by a team of professionals composed of Irvin Paras from CDRRMO, Engr. Helson Canero from City Engineering Office, and Engr. Frances Eduarte from the City Planning and Development Office. It can be recalled that Mayor Gordon previously sent the said personnel to a training in Baguio City to learn the operation and maintenance of the AWS .

 “The AWS can definitely help us in predicting the weather and in making appropriate decisions particularly in the suspension of classes during the rainy season and in the early evacuation of people residing near high-risk areas,” explained City Disaster Risk Reduction Officer Angie Layug.

Fund released for weather radar in Subic

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo recently approved the release of money from the President's Social Fund (PSF) for the purchase of a third Doppler weather radar, a Cabinet official confirmed on Saturday.

"Such move aims to further help authorities forecast with more accuracy position and intensity of precipitation so people can plan and prepare accordingly," Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Secretary Estrella Alabastro said as government continued pushing its preventive approach to disaster management.

She said the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) is preparing to bid out supply of such radar which costs an estimated P87 million and which DOST will install in Cebu province.

Authorities are optimistic better forecasting through such radars will help mitigate economic and non-economic damage arising from inclement weather.

In a study, World Bank noted damage arising from such and other natural disasters that struck the Philippines from 1970 to 2000 might have averaged over P15 billion annually.

To boost the government's weather forecasting capability, Alabastro said President Arroyo also earlier ordered the release of PSF money for two other Doppler radars to be located in Subic, Zambales and Tagaytay City in Cavite.

Alabastro hopes the DBM's final bidding for supply of these facilities can be concluded soon.

"The President's decision to purchase these radars is a milestone in government's weather service since we've been using qualitative analysis of images only to forecast precipitation," she said.

The DOST is targeting to purchase and install soon five other Doppler radars to complement the operation of the three PSF-financed units.

"The House and Senate approved the inclusion of some P200 million in our 2007 proposed budget for two of these radars while we're negotiating for three others through a grant from the Japan International Cooperation Agency," Alabastro said.

This week, rain from super typhoon 'Reming' triggered in Albay province landslides that buried scores of residents at the foot of Mayon Volcano.

"Bicol sustained about 466 millimeters of rain when this typhoon struck that region," DOST Undersecretary Graciano Yumul said during the Kapihan sa Sulo forum.

He noted this volume of rainfall is about 133 percent more than the normal Philippine average.

Department of Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap earlier placed the total rice and corn production loss from 'Reming' at about P567 million.

He attributed this to the projected P250 million and P317 million losses in rice and corn production, respectively.

Between 50 and 60 percent of the country's total 150,000 hectares of rice land as well as 11,000 to 12,000 hectares out of the total 40,000 to 50,000 hectares of land planted to corn were affected, he reported.

Yap said corn production suffered more since this crop is more susceptible to water damage than rice which can still recover from such havoc unless it is already in its flowering stage.

He estimated that farmers can still recover about 80 percent of damaged rice plantings. (PNA)

Rolex China Sea Race to finish in Subic Bay

With the start of the Rolex China Sea Race just three weeks away, a competitive fleet is lining up for this 565-nautical mile Asian offshore classic. To date, 29 boats are registered, with several more anticipated to enter the race, which starts on Thursday, April 1 in Hong Kong and finishes in Subic Bay, northwest of Manila, the Philippines.

Organised by the Royal Hong Kong Yacht Club, in co-operation with Manila Yacht Club and the Subic Bay Yacht Club, this will be the 25th edition of the biennial blue-water race that will start, weather permitting, amidst the hustle and bustle of seagoing activity - sampans, ferries, and ships - of Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour.

From the starting line off the RHKYC, there is a short leg to a windward mark before the fleet heads eastwards across the South China Sea, along the west coast of the Philippines to the finish off Subic Bay.

Seasoned competitors know it is never as easy as it sounds. Typically, weather on the first day and night in the South China Sea can feature a boat and crew-testing combination of lumpy seas and a strong headwind. The race then becomes fairly strategic as tacticians and navigators have to decide how close to sail to the Philippine shoreline in search of breeze.

RHKYC Commodore Warwick Downes, an enthusiastic competitor, will be a helmsman of Avant Garde, a new Archambault 40 owned and skippered by Greg Kearns. Downes, having raced in the RCSR around 10 times, including several wins, knows what to expect offshore.

"I look forward to a spectacular start, a rollicking reach to the obstacles of the oil rigs, then a blue-water blast towards a fickle finish," Downes said.

As to strategy, he offered, "It usually pays to go a bit south of the rhumbline, but sometimes a northern route will get you there - it depends on the weather reports and how much you trust them."

The current race record of just under two days was established in 2000 by local yachtsman Karl Kwok on his Volvo 60, Beau Geste, with an elapsed time of 47h 43m 07s.

This year's entries include several strong contenders to challenge Kwok's race record; 2008 RCSR line honours winner, Neil Pryde with his modified Welbourn Custom 52 Hi Fi; the TP52's Geoff Hill's Strewth (AUS), Ray Robert's Evolution Racing (AUS), and Sam Chan's FfreeFire 52; and Fred Kinmonth/Nick Burns' Mills 51 EFG Mandrake.

Also in the line-up is FfreeFire 70, a ULDB sled, skippered by Lowell Chang, as well as the 2008 RCSR handicap winner, Ernesto Echauz' Subic Centennial (PHI), a Sydney 46, back to defend their win.

An internationally known sailmaker and formidable competitor, Neil Pryde is a veteran of 18 China Sea Races with two wins - including 2008 line honours - so he knows well what may lie in store en-route.

Pryde offered, "It is always a very challenging race. We start with a sprint across the South China Sea driven by the northeast monsoon. As this runs out, we then work our way into a new weather system that develops off the Philippines coast and there is always a gap in the middle, which is difficult to bridge.

“Like any other ocean race, to win you need an element of luck and obviously, we hope we are going to get plenty!

“Tactically, this is a very interesting race and the objective is always to place the boat in the right position to get first use of the new breeze that takes us into the Philippines, but even when we get to the (Philippine) coast, the last few miles into Subic Bay can bring surprises.

“Depending on the time of the day you arrive, you can either get land or sea breezes and again, there is always a gap in the middle. Such is the joy of ocean racing!

“This year the competition is going to be tough with four other 52 ft boats in Racing Division, including three TP52s. We certainly will have company!"

The Rolex China Sea Race rules require boats must be a minimum length of 10m (LOA) to compete and will be divided into: IRC Racing (three divisions), Cruising Class, and Premier Cruising Class.

Shore-based fans will once again have the opportunity to follow the racing online. Pole Star and SkyWave have joined forces to provide a web-based tracking facility for the event.

The race was first run in 1962, and has been held every two years since then. In 1972, it was officially recognised by the Royal Ocean Racing Club. Since then it has continued to attract increased interest and served to draw the attention of the international yachting fraternity to Hong Kong and Southeast Asia.

The Rolex China Sea Race joins other prestigious Rolex sponsored events including the Farr 40 Worlds, Maxi Yacht Rolex Cup, Swan Cup, Middle Sea Race and the Sydney Hobart Yacht Race.

Further information including entry list: www.rhkyc.org.hk/rolexchinasearace.htm

WEATHER UPDATE

While there are reports that Pepeng is on its way out (storm signal covering Zambales lifted) and that Olongapo City is now said to be safe, being prepared and cautious is still the best way to go.

Heavy rain (total 100mm), heaviest during Sat afternoon (36mm) forecast from www.weather-forecast.com means that we should expect considerable rainfall, while flooding will not be the same as last weeks, possibility of landslides exists due to the already soaked ridges.

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM), a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA, captured an image of Parma's rains already affecting the Philippines on October 2 at 00:43 UTC, 8:43 a.m. local Manila Time (8:43 p.m. EDT, Oct. 1). TRMM noticed that most of the rainfall around Parma's center is between 20 and 40 millimeters (.78 to 1.57 inches) per hour.

Typhoon Parma is a huge storm and NASA's TRMM satellite sees it is already bringing more unwanted rains and gusty winds to the typhoon-weary and devastated Philippines. Parma, also called "Pepeng" in the Philippines, will bring heavy rains there today and tomorrow before moving back to sea.

This writer specially likes the NASA TRMM because is gives visuals and readily understandable predictions specially with regards to rainfall and precipitations. These data are important that I could not see the reason why it is not being fully utilized by our local weathermen, this representation not being a professional weather forecaster was able to warn our constituents of the impending flooding by simply using information readily available in the net. (see sample image below when massive flooding in Luzon was predicted.)

Below data is from PAGASA for comparison

Satellite Image for 5 a.m., 03 October 2009

Predicted Mean Sea Level Wind - Analysis for 8 a.m., 03 October 2009

Synopsis:

At 4:00 a.m., today, Typhoon "PEPENG" was located based on radar, satellite and surface data at 260 kms Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan (16.6°N 123.6°E) with maximum sustained winds of 175 kph and gustiness of up to 210 kph. It is forecast to move Northwest at 17 kph.

Forecast:

Northern Luzon will experience stormy weather while Bicol region and the Eastern section of Central Luzon will have rains and gusty winds with moderate to rough seas. The rest of Luzon will have occasional rains while Visayas and Mindanao will be mostly cloudy with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.

Monday, hottest day of the year

Yesterday was the hottest day in the country this year.

With temperatures reaching 35.8 degrees Celsius, the weather bureau recorded the highest temperature in Metro Manila for this year.

Nathaniel Cruz, weather branch chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said the warm weather being felt in most parts of the country particularly in Metro Manila is indicative that summer is officially here.

"Expect more sunny days, hotter days for the next few months probably until May," Cruz said.

Yesterday’s recorded hottest temperature at the Science Garden in Quezon City, however, was two degrees higher compared to Sunday’s recorded temperature of 33.8 degrees Celsius.

Last year, highest recorded temperature here was 37.8 which occurred on April 28. This was .8 higher from the May 15, 2003 record of 37.0 degrees Celsius.

But the highest ever recorded temperature for Metro Manila was 38.5 degrees Celsius which occurred on May 14, 1987.

The said record, however, is still nothing compared to the 42.2 degrees Celsius highest temperature recorded in the country which occurred in Tuguegarao, Cagayan on May 11, 1969.

With the current record, Cruz said, the weather bureau will continue to monitor the day-to-day temperature in the country to see whether there is an increase or decrease in temperature

Weather Forecast

It will be sunny and hot on Wednesday.... but keep your guards up ... coz there will be heavy rains with strong winds and possibility of flooding on Friday. In our city, 38mm rain and above is our recipe for flooding.

Subic Bay 4 – 6 Day Weather Summary: Heavy rain (total 119mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/SubicBay/forecasts/latest

Derobert rules Subic duathlon

French duathlete Damien Derobert paved the way for his ascension to the top of the world rankings by ruling the 2009 Subic Bay ASTC Asian Duathlon Championships (ADC) Elite Open class held in an out and back race course at the Subic Bay Convention Center, Subic Bay Freeport.

Not even the presence of the world no. 1 Sergey Yakovlev and other ace duathletes could intimidate him as Derobert put on a big windup that was enough to claim the victory and no. 1 ranking entering 2010.

“This is my first time here and outside of the hot weather, it was a good race. I’m very much satisfied with my performance. After this race, I’m going to be the No. 1 ranked in ITU (International Triathlon Union)," said the current world no. 2 Derobert, who covered 10-k run, 40-k bike and 5-k run race in one hour, 49 minutes and 23 seconds.

ASTC Asian Duathlon Championships

Elite Male Results

1. Damien Derobert (FRA) 1:49:23

2. Raphael Baugh (AUS) 1:49:35

3. Sergey Iakovlev (RUS) 1:50:10

4. Yuya Fukaura (JPN) 1:51:35

5. Neil Catiil (PHI) 1:53:02

Elite Female Results

1. Radka Vodickova (CZE) 2:04:43

2. Airi Sawada (JPN) 2:05:38

3. Monica Torres (PHI) 2:08:10

4. Lea Coline Langit (PHI) 2:09:22

5. Erika Inoue (JPN) 2:11:51

Yakovlev actually led after the first run phase but the heat bothered him and forced him to slow down.

Still, Yakovlev was among the six duathletes in the lead group after the second transition but Derobert saved his best for last as he topped the final 5k run with a 16:51 to eventually win the race.

In the end, Australian world no. 4 Raphael Baugh edged the Russian duathlete for second overall, finishing just 12 seconds behind champion Derobert with 1:49:35.

Yakovlev settled for third with his 1:50:10, followed by Japan’s Yuya Fukaura with 1:51:35.

Fukaura emerged as this year’s male Asian Duathlon Champion, an improvement from his second place finish last year. The new Asian champ, however, failed to attend the awarding ceremony as he was throwing up and needed rest after the race due to the humid weather.

Top Filipino bet Neil Catiil came in fifth and grabbed the silver medal in the ADC with 1:53:02 while former national champion August Benedicto took the bronze medal with 1:55:46.

Catiil again displayed his strength in the bike phase on flat roads, submitting the fastest time at 59:32. That enabled him to move forward from sixth place after the first run to a spot in the lead pack after the bike leg.

He, however, took so much time in the bike-to-run transition and was immediately left behind by his rivals.

“Mahina talaga ako sa off-the-bike-to-run transition at ito talaga ang dapat kong baguhin. Pagtingin ko sa kanila malayo na, parang lumipad sila," said Catiil, also the country’s top male triathlete.

In the distaff side, the Czech Republic’s Radka Vodickova led from start to finish to clinch her second straight duathlon title after winning the Malakoff Powerman Duathlon meet a week back in Malaysia.

“I was not bothered by the hot weather because I stayed in Malaysia for the last 14 days. My concern is if I still have the energy to run the 5-k because I just competed in the Malakoff," said Vodickova.

And she indeed had enough of it, negotiating the last 5-k in a respectable 19:48 for a best overall time of 2:04:43.

A distant second was Japan’s Airi Sawada, who clocked in at 2:05:38 but her effort was greatly rewarded as she kept the Asian Duathlon Championship’s female title for the third straight time.

“I was doing all the work in the bike and I was really tired going into the run. Overall, I’m happy with my performance because I maintained my Asian title since 2007," said Sawada in broken English.

The country’s top lady duathlete Monica Torres emerged third overall but claimed the silver medal in the Asian category with 2:08:10 while the Philippines’ ace lady triathlete Lea Coline Langit came next and won the Asian bronze with 2:09:22.

“She (Sawada) has beaten me in almost all previous meetings but this time, I managed to close our gap, which is an improvement on my part," said Torres who also was a silver medalist in the last ADC. - GMANews.TV

Rain and strong winds

A low-pressure area (LPA) west of Iba town in Zambales province has developed into a tropical depression, weather forecasters said Friday.

The tropical depression, “Florita,” is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rain and strong winds over the western sections of Luzon and the Visayas region, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

PAGASA did not raise public storm warning signals over Luzon and the Visayas.

The state weather bureau’s website said that as of 4 p.m. Friday, “Florita” was located 330 kilometers west of Dagupan City and is expected to be 510 km west of Laoag City by Saturday afternoon.

The tropical depression is currently packing maximum winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center and is expected to move northwest at 11kph.

PAGASA also spotted another low pressure area 770 km northeast of Basco, Batanes, today.

“The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today,” PAGASA said.

Sat 28 morn- ing	Sat 28 after- noon	Sat 28 night	Sun 29 morn- ing	Sun 29 after- noon	Sun 29 night	Mon 30 morn- ing	Mon 30 after- noon	Mon 30 night
Metric
Imperial
Wind (km/h)
Summary	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs	rain shwrs
Rain (mm)	11	17	47	16	11	8	9	7	9

Heavy rain (total 135mm), heaviest during Saturday night, Warm

Precipatation forecast provided by

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/SubicBay/forecasts/latest

Present observation: continous rain this morning ranging from light to heavy